6 responses

  1. uglyfatbloke
    February 23, 2012

    I doubt that the Lib-Dems are totally finished, but I think their parameters have probably changed quite radically. In England – and perhaps Wales – I expect that they will recover over time; in fact, I expect they will not do so badly in the next GE as most people seem to think and if Ed Milliband ever becomes PM the Lib-Dems will eventually benefit from an anti-libertarian Labour government.
    OTH, they really are washed-up in Scotland. Another week of campaigning back in May and they would have lost at least one more MSP and more likely two – possibly one to Labour under the ‘list’ system, but more likely both to the SNP. Having Willie Rennie as their Holyrood leader really won’t help at all.
    As for the next Westminster elections….If Ming Campbell does n’t retire then they might well keep his seat and almost certainly Alistair Carmichael’s, but the rest will pretty surely go SNP unless the Nats do something incredibly stupid – and there’s litle sign of that. Labour in Scotland might make a recovery if they were to adopt a position of FFA (Full Fiscal Autonomy), a massive shift toward personal liberty and abolition of the Supreme court (which is a breach of the Treaty of Union) – but Milliband would never allow that.
    If the Lib-Dems were smart they would adopt FFA now as part of a drive toward federalism and make a big push on private and personal civil liberties – ‘my home is my castle’ sort of stuff. Then they could campaign effectively to replace labour as the second party in Scotland….better to do it before Labour implodes and loses the referendum in 2014.


    • sarah
      February 23, 2012

      I think that a snowflake will melt at the north pole before Ed Miliband becomes PM, tbh.

      I think the Lib Dems have been pushed to their limit in Wales and they will, if not recover, as least maintain what remaining seats they have. I find your points about Scotland very interesting, I don’t know much about them, so I shall bear that in mind.

      But I think that the membership of the Liberal Democrats has shifted dramatically, and so have their voters. If the Liberal Democrats appealed as a protest vote in general elections, what protest votes will go to them as the party of government? But if you want to vote for the government, why wouldn’t you vote Tory? I hear tell from many friends in different countries with coalition governments that the minority partner is nearly always punished at the ballot box for supporting measures they don’t agree with to get a place at the table. What student, a massive portion of the Liberal Democrat vote in several seats, is going to forget that they are paying £9000 a year because the Lib Dems lied? I’m really not convinced by this argument that people will just “forget” tuition fees, the destruction of the NHS, welfare, etc.


  2. richard lane
    March 16, 2012

    Am liking the conclusion to this – Greens replacing Lib Dems! Also, think they’ll prob lose all cllrs again this May, possibly bar 1 or 2.

    The Greens are determined to win in Manchester, but like all these things its a long hard slog.

    If labour do shoot up to say 90% control, are there any other large cities with such an unbalanced majority?


    • sarah
      March 17, 2012

      I actually couldn’t find any, but if there are, they’ll probably be around the north somewhere. Let me know if you find any!


  3. gd smith
    May 1, 2012

    Of course the lib Dem’s are pretty much finished. History suggests they will split, leaving a rump of committed liberals.
    More important than the loss of voters is the failure of their central policy of electoral reform. Without it they haven’t really got a purpose.
    In any seats hostile to the conservative all Labour has to do is say “vote lib Dem get Tory”. I can definitely see The Greens picking off some seats, as well as Labour and the Conservative party.
    Basically they are not even trusted by the party they are in a coalition with, let alone the Voters. It sad really.


    • sarah
      May 2, 2012

      Absolutely everything you just said. I find it utterly bizarre that Nick Clegg’s next big idea to go into the 2015 election with is Lords reform…


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